Derek Jeter currently has 2,747 career hits meaning he would likely reach 3,000 hits in early 2011. He is also close to matching Pete Rose's hits output at the age of 35 which was 2,762 hits. At the age of 35, he would need to average about 190 to 200 hits a season for the next 8 years in order to reach Pete Rose's record of 4,257 hits.
According to Bill James' Favorite Toy method, Jeter has not established a measurable chance to break Rose's record. That said, he does have a six-percent chance of reaching 4,000 hits. Which leads to the obvious question: Is 4,257 hits really so many more than 4,000?
And the obvious answer: Yes. When you're 43 or 44, 257 is an awful lot of hits.
The other problem is one of context. It's not just incredibly uncommon for a player to collect nearly 1,500 hits after turning 36, as Pete Rose did. It's also incredibly uncommon for a player to play regularly or semi-regularly into his mid 40s, as Rose did. And of course he was able to do that because a) he played first base, and 2) he managed his own team for the last 203 games of his playing career.
And the obvious answer: Yes. When you're 43 or 44, 257 is an awful lot of hits.
The other problem is one of context. It's not just incredibly uncommon for a player to collect nearly 1,500 hits after turning 36, as Pete Rose did. It's also incredibly uncommon for a player to play regularly or semi-regularly into his mid 40s, as Rose did. And of course he was able to do that because a) he played first base, and 2) he managed his own team for the last 203 games of his playing career.
I would absolutely love to see Derek Jeter replace Pete Rose in the record books. But estimates are that he'll finish his career with 3,692 hits.
No comments:
Post a Comment